3rd Quarter Real Estate Progress & Update

Recovery is progressing at different rates for various sectors despite slow economic growth. Apartments are still doing well, Office vacancies are declining slightly, and Retail vacancies are moored at 20-year highs.

Fears of a second recession have receded somewhat, but all eyes are still on Europe and on some aspects of the domestic economy.

Vacancy forecasts are largely unchanged since early 2010. Expectations have ratcheted downwards, however, for the most bullish rent growth forecasts.

Apartment Market Summary

Third quarter data shows that national vacancies fell by 30 basis points, from 5.9% to 5.6% as seen in the chart to the left. The apartment sector posted positive net absorption of roughly 36,000 units; this is a pullback relative to the first half when net absorption averaged around 43,000 units.

Although both asking and effective rents have increased for seven consecutive quarters, it now seems apparent that the most optimistic 2011 forecasts of between 4 to 5 percent national rent growth will not materialize for the year.

Office Market Summary

We should not deemphasize positive developments that show that the health of the office sector is improving. Completions rose in the third quarter along with rents increasing fairly consistently over the last four quarters.

Vacancies continued to decline, falling by 10 basis points from 17.5% in the second quarter to 17.4% in the third. Occupied space rose by roughly 6 million square feet, with positive leasing activity speeding up relative to the first half of the year.

Retail Market Summary

Retail vacancies remained stubbornly high at 11 percent in the third quarter, moored at a level unseen in two decades. We expect a modest rise in vacancies by the end of the year to 11.1 percent, and the only reason why vacancies haven't risen even more is that completions have essentially dried up.

The pace of deterioration is slowing, even when one examines figures across metro markets. Pockets of recovery continue to manifest showing relatively robust increase in year-over-year growth however; national figures have yet to consistently show heartening results.

Courtesy of REIS Reports